Poland: How 2023 promises to be in housing
What do developers believe this year will be like in the housing market? What is the level of demand for properties? Will new projects be coming on sale? Will developers unfreeze investments?
Tomasz Kaleta, director of the Sales Department, Develia S.A..
Increases in developers' sales results in the first months of this year testify to an improvement in buyer sentiment. Our planned sales target at the beginning of this year is 1450-1650 flats, a level comparable to last year's sales. At this point, the market is stronger than our assumptions. This should allow us to further increase the company's share of the residential market. In addition, we assume that we will sign contracts for PRS projects and sell up to several hundred units to funds.
This year, we intend to introduce and start construction of 1850-2050 flats. These will include both further stages of ongoing investments, such as Aleje Praskie in Warsaw, Grzegórzecka 77 in Kraków or Ceglana Park in Katowice, as well as premiere projects in new locations. We can build around 8,000 flats on the land in our portfolio. We watch the market carefully and adjust the supply to customers' interest and purchasing capacity.
Angelika Kliś, Atal board member
Our baseline scenario for this year assumes a similar number of contracting as last year. To be on the safe side, we do not include in this forecast the effect of government programmes, which, however, may have a positive impact on the industry's performance. To what extent this will be we will see in the second half of the year.
We are launching new investments in line with the approved plan. This year we have already launched the sale of several investments: Naramowice Odnova in Poznań (approximately 500 flats), Anders Gardens in Gliwice (phase I, approximately 115 flats), and in Łódź, phase IV of the New City Polesie project. A three-stage development at Piotrkowska Street in Łódź and the second stage of the SKY+ project in Katowice are in the pipeline.
Cezary Grabowski, Sales and Marketing Director of Bouygues Immobilier Polska
We look at this year with optimism. For us, the first months have seen sales increases of several dozen percent, which we are proud of. Our new estates in Warsaw - Lumea 2, M Bemowo or Nova Talarowa are enjoying unflagging interest. Construction of our estates is ongoing in Warsaw, Poznań, Wrocław and Gdynia. We have not held back any investment and the general contractors are working intensively on our projects.
In the second half of the year, we plan to launch further projects. This is nearly 400 flats in four estates - three in Warsaw's Bemowo district and one in Praga. According to our schedule, their construction will start in 2024.
Małgorzata Ostrowska, Director of the Marketing and Sales Division at J.W. Construction Holding S.A.
We will soon launch three investments in the Warsaw district of Białołęka. In two of them, we will apply eco-solutions ensuring lower energy, heating and hot water charges thanks to heat pumps and installation of a photovoltaic system. The investment we will launch in the near future is a cosy housing estate in Berensona Street. The three-storey buildings will be constructed using modular technology, which is environmentally friendly and resident-friendly. Natural, recyclable materials will be used in the construction.
Janusz Miller, Sales and Marketing Director of Home Invest
We are looking at the whole of 2023 with great optimism. The first months show a dynamic increase in flat sales. We have been able to introduce several new projects for sale, which are very popular with customers. We are planning to introduce several more projects in Warsaw.
Eyal Keltsh, CEO of Robyg Group
The year 2023 will certainly be a challenging year for the economy as a whole, including in the residential construction sector. That is why we are focusing on building synergies within the large, strong TAG Immobilien Group. This gives us a strong position, a large land bank, complementary activities and allows us to prepare for more difficult times in the economy with confidence. Regardless, we hope that both those in power and the financial sector will focus on building up the availability of financing, because the demand for flats in Poland is very high and the main obstacle is the lack of credit. We are launching new phases and projects as planned, the only barrier here is still too slow administrative procedures. This is an area for improvement, as this will increase the supply on the market.
Boaz Haim, CEO of Ronson Development
Our forecasts for 2023 are coming true so far. We expected a significant improvement in consumer sentiment and this has indeed happened. This is shown by our sales results for the first quarter of this year and increases of more than 50 per cent compared to the fourth quarter of 2022.
We treated the whole of last year as a time to prepare for the market rebound. We purchased 12 new plots of land and our land bank is secured for 5 479 units (of which 578 units are dedicated to the PRS segment and 1 910 units under construction). We have created a portfolio of projects with ready building permits that we will be launching this year. These will be the next phases of the Viva Jagodno, Miasto Moje, Ursus Central and Nowe Warzymice projects in Szczecin. In addition, we have applied for building permits in completely new locations - in Warsaw's Dolny Mokotów district, where we want to launch the Zielono Mi project, and in Poznań's Grunwald district, where a new housing estate will be built.
Justyna Hamrol-Wasielewska, Sales Director of Eiffage Immobilier Polska
Our investments reflect the potential of the place where they are located and are a choice for both target customers and investors, which is why our strategy is based on designing investments in prestigious locations in Poland's biggest cities. We see that our flats are very popular, which is why we are developing our business, both in the capital and in local markets. We are planning to introduce a second investment in Poznań this year, located close to the city centre. We will also announce a new project in the capital of Lower Silesia, and at the end of June/beginning of July we will launch regular sales of our investment in Praga in Warsaw.
We do not plan to stop development. We continue to invest in the Miasteczko Jutrzenki estate, we are handing over more units to residents and in the near future we will start building the next stage - the Lavender Quarter. In Warsaw's Białołęka district, we are planning to start construction of My Forest, an estate with low-rise buildings and a private forest accessible only to residents, as well as the My River project, which is located by a river.
Damian Tomasik, founder of Alter Investment
From the perspective of the beginning of the year, we can see that optimism has returned to the market very quickly, and the recorded sales allow us to look optimistically at the next months. At the moment, we can see that customers lack choice of flats on the market and the only way to meet the growing demand will be to introduce new investments to the offer.
Of our projects, an investment at Jabłoniowa Street in Gdańsk will go on sale in the coming months, which we will sell to a developer in order for him to build a complex of residential buildings. The second project we intend to introduce to the market in the near future is an attractively located investment in Olszewnik near Jeziorany. At the end of the year we also expect a project at Madalińskiego Street in Gdańsk to be ready for market launch, for which we will soon obtain a building permit.
Marcin Michalec, CEO Okam
The year 2023 started positively for us. In the first quarter, we recorded strong interest in our residential investments. Satisfactory sales dynamics in the local markets where we are present allow us to develop and also launch the next stages of projects in Łódź, Katowice and Warsaw. The next stage of the Strefa PROGRESS investment in Łódź is being planned. In the capital of the Łódź Voivodeship, we also have a second residential project ahead of us on Dowborczyków Street.
We have also recently started construction of CITYFLOW on the capital's market. More than 300 flats are planned for the first stage of the project, and further ahead of us is a long-term, comprehensive project in Żerań. In Katowice, on the other hand, we are implementing the next stages of the INSPIRE investment in the Dolina Trzech Stawów.
Source: The poll was prepared by the real estate website dompress.pl
Photo: Aurec Home Osiedle Jutrzenki