What assumptions have residential companies made this year in Poland

Is demand for flats still holding up, what sales results did developers close the first quarter of this year with, did more flats sell than a year ago, what assumptions have the companies made this year, what results do they expect in 2024 and what will have a decisive impact on sales,

Zbigniew Juroszek, CEO of Atal:
The Atal Group contracted 730 units in Q1 2024. In line with our expectations, in this period we achieved a significantly higher contracting by more than 80 per cent than in the same period last year and similar to the results of Q2 and Q3 2023. The fourth quarter of last year was an exceptional period and thus unreliable due to the closure of the BK 2% subsidy programme.

Since the beginning of this year, we have recorded a stable and high level of interest in the offer from buyers. January and February were very good in terms of sales. In March, we saw it slow down slightly and increase the share of cash transactions to around 50 per cent, as conventional credit is still expensive. Our plans for this year are to contract around 3,000 units.

Overall, customers remain active in the housing market, although some are holding off on decisions as they wait for the new government programme to be launched and interest rates to fall. I anticipate that these could be important drivers for the market in the second half of the year. Therefore, we have decided to introduce our own 'Decision on instalments' solution, which guarantees buyers the current price of a unit while extending the purchase decision process until this autumn."

Tomasz Kaleta, Sales Department Director, Develia S.A.:
Despite the fact that the acceptance of applications in the '2% Safe Credit' programme has been stopped as of the end of 2023, we are still seeing a lot of interest in the purchase of flats from credit customers. However, this does not mean that the demand generated by cash buyers, both for their own housing needs and for investment purposes, has weakened. Both of these groups are aware that the offer is consistently shrinking and have concerns that housing prices will continue to rise.

In the first quarter of 2024, sales should close with at least 1,000 units, twice as many as in the same period last year. We assume that the high demand for flats will continue, so by the end of the year we plan to sell around 2,900 to 3,100 flats, which is about 8% more than in 2023.

Zuzanna Należyta, commercial director at Eco Classic:
For years, the level of interest rates and the decisions and announcements of government programmes supporting the purchase of a flat or a house have been crucial in shaping demand. Currently, since the beginning of the year, we have seen a reduction in the number of transactions, but not in demand. We have a similar level of interest, but customers are clearly communicating a holding back of decisions due to the announcement of the introduction of a new government programme.

BIK estimates that nearly 50% of the loans granted in February 2024 were still loans granted on applications under the BK 2%. This means that around 11,000 unsupported mortgages were granted in February. This is about 30% better than the very bad February 2023, but still about 30% worse than that achieved in February 2019. So, the market is a long way from the situation before the pandemic and the outbreak of war in Ukraine, and the main reason for this, however, seems to be the very high interest rates.

Joanna Chojecka, sales and marketing director for Warsaw and Wrocław at Robyg Group:
The expectations for the markets in 2024 are positive - lower inflation, funds coming from the EU and a stabilised economy. We plan to sell 2,300 flats this year. We have a large land bank and we are introducing new investments for sale all the time. The positive trend is that the market situation is good and there is clear demand. Unfortunately, supply is still low. There is a shortage of flats, especially in Warsaw, where purchase interest is highest. It is certainly important to acquire new land. We plan to sell 2,300 flats in Poland in 2024.

Mariola Żak, sales and marketing director at Aurec Home:
Flats from the primary market are still a scarce commodity. However, in the first quarter of 2024, customers had access to a wider range of housing than in 2023, because developers started to put on sale those investments they had put on hold during the pandemic. This year we expect a higher level of sales compared to last year. We are currently selling flats from the eco-friendly development Miasteczko Jutrzenki - Lavender District and, from March this year, from the industrial development Fabrica Ursus. Approximately 135 flats will be built in the new development, and buyers can choose from units ranging in size from 36 to 80 sqm. The buildings will be equipped with a two-storey underground garage, which will provide sufficient parking spaces for all residents. The new development will allow us to maintain our offer of flats at an attractive level for customers in different market segments.

An important aspect for us, as for all developers, will be the concretisation of the assumptions of the government's 'Mieszkanie na start' programme, which will allow us to create personalised offers for specific groups of recipients."

Boaz Haim, president of Ronson Development:
The first months of 2024 were clearly marked by greater calm in the market. A stabilisation and rebuilding of the balance between demand and supply is noticeable. We are taking a slightly more cautious approach to the market than last year. We expect 2024 to bring less activity in the market and are fully prepared to adapt our strategies to current conditions. We have adopted clear objectives, the most important of which are to maintain high margins, optimise pricing and contract realisations and achieve a solid financial result.

With freshly introduced investments and more to come in the coming weeks and months, we expect that the second quarter of the year may see an increase in performance relative to the first.

Damian Tomasik, CEO of Alter Investment:
Our results in the first quarter are a record in terms of the number of projects sold. Demand for land with building permits is huge. During this period, we sold 5 projects and signed 10 preliminary agreements for further plots of land.

Source: dompress.pl
Photo: Eco Classic, Moja Polnocna