67.5% of experts count on a partial relocation of production from Asia to CEE by 2030

More than 2/3 of experts (67.5%) dealing with foreign trade believe that by the end of 2030 Central Europe will strengthen its role as "Europe's factory" and there will be a partial relocation of production from Asia to Poland and the countries of the region, according to a study conducted by the Polish Economic Institute (PIE). According to experts, the most desirable for partial relocation of supply chains are: drugs, medical devices, hydrogen, active pharmaceutical substances, microelectronics, batteries and accumulators, and offshore wind energy.

Almost 68% of respondents believe that by the end of 2030 Central Europe will strengthen its role as 'Europe's factory' and there will be a partial relocation of production from Asia to Poland and the countries of the region. Slightly less, 65% believe that by the end of 2030 Asia will remain the 'factory of the world', according to the report.

At the same time, 63% of statements indicate that there will be an increase in national production by the end of 2030.

"The experts' responses clearly show that the most important factors determining a potential relocation are economic factors (in the form of an increase in wage costs in China) and political and security issues, indicated in the report.

The potential strengthening of Central Europe as a "factory of Europe" and the relocation of production from Asia would be most influenced by: an increase in production costs in China and disruptions in global supply chains caused, inter alia, by pandemic and natural disasters. Experts also attached considerable importance to the more assertive economic policy of the EU and the US towards China and to conflicts in the field of EU and US security policy in relations with China. The favorable index may take values ​​from 0 to 100. A level above 50 indicates a high degree of support for a factor in the implementation of the phenomenon described in the thesis, and below 50 means a low degree of support for a given factor, also given.

From the point of view of Poland's interests, the surveyed experts found the following: drugs, medical devices, hydrogen, active pharmaceutical substances, microelectronics, batteries and accumulators, and offshore wind energy the most desirable for the partial relocation of supply chains. The highest probability of relocation was recorded for batteries and To some extent, the relocation of the production of these devices is already taking place, the report continues.

"Among the activities that would allow for locating the stages of the supply chain with higher added value in Poland, experts indicated: support for the education of highly qualified employees (e.g. engineers), an increase in expenditure and implementation of research and development activities, infrastructure development and the creation of immigration incentives, according to the report.

PIE conducted a survey among 40 external experts in the field of foreign trade.

Source: PIE and ISBnews