Bank Pekao predicts short-term rise in unemployment rate for Poland

Bank Pekao has projected that the recent increase in Poland’s unemployment rate will not extend beyond the next three months, signaling a potential stabilization in the labor market. According to the bank’s economists, despite current upward trends, improvements in employment within the industrial sector are anticipated.

The bank highlighted that the data from July and August, typically weaker months for employment, are the lowest recorded since 2009. The upward movement in the unemployment rate is attributed to seasonal patterns and is expected to be temporary. “Despite the recent uptick, we anticipate that the trend will stabilize within three months. The employment figures from the business sector suggest a temporary dip rather than a long-term decline,” the bank noted.

August’s unemployment figures were unexpectedly higher than forecasts. The number of unemployed increased by 8,300, surpassing July’s rise and defying seasonal expectations. The Ministry of Labour and Social Policy (MRPiPS) reported that the unemployment rate remained steady at 5.0% in August, with a notable increase in the number of unemployed from 765,000 to 774,000.

Bank Pekao’s economists described the current labor market situation as stagnant, with an overall stable but slightly deteriorating trend over the past five months. They noted that collective redundancies are on the rise, and the national economic recovery has yet to significantly impact the labor market.

Looking ahead, the bank remains optimistic that GDP growth above 4% next year will lead to a more substantial improvement in employment conditions. “While the labor market is currently under pressure, we expect to see more positive developments as economic growth picks up in the coming year,” the bank concluded.

Source: Bank Pekao and ISBnews