Cost of raising a child is PLN 346k in 2024, realistically unchanged y/y
The cost of raising one child in Poland in 2024 (up to the age of 18 and as of the end of the previous year) amounted to PLN 346 thousand (PLN 1602 per month), and of two children - PLN 579 thousand, estimates the Adam Smith Centre. A year earlier, these costs were respectively: PLN 316 thousand and PLN 518 thousand after taking into account and revising the data at the beginning of this year. Families did not change their spending per child in real terms, despite spending 9.2% more on parenting than in the previous year, it stressed.
Almost 80% of the costs of raising a child are food, housing, transport and education. In 2023, these increased respectively food by 15.1%, housing by 13.4%, transport by 0.1% and education by 12.8%.
Total inflation of the child-rearing shopping basket in 2023 was 9.3%, which is less than CPI inflation of 11.4%. At the same time, spending per child increased by 9.2%, which is virtually the same as the inflation of the parenting shopping basket. This means that families did not change their spending per child in real terms, despite spending 9.2% more on parenting than in the previous year, it was reported.
Poles aged 18 and over, if they were to imagine that they were now deciding whether they wanted to have children 3/4 would take the decision yes, while 1/4 of respondents were of the opposite opinion. 35% of respondents aged 18-24 say they do not want to have children.
Young people from large cities are the least willing to have children, it was also reported.
The most frequently cited factor - in 16% of declarations by those who do not want to have children - was ‘financial situation and cost of living for children’.
Age, lack of need, responsibility and duties’ were also mentioned as other reasons discouraging having children. The fact that ‘one does not like children, the state of the world, freedom, comfort, peace and quiet’. As many as 15% of respondents who do not want children did not mention any of the suggested reasons, and 14% said, according to the report.
Adam Smith Centre President Andrzej Sadowski assessed that Poland is experiencing symptoms of the so-called ‘second demographic transition’.
"The second demographic transition implies a unidirectional change in many demographic behaviours, which breaks with the continuity of transition and stability proposed by the earlier theory of demographic transition. The accumulation of these factors has not been stopped by a policy of the type of use of financial boosters, and if a causal link is to be sought, it has undoubtedly produced the opposite effect," assessed Sadowski.
According to Collegium Civitas lecturer and former member of the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) Kamil Zubelewicz, "in the course of inflation, the absurdity of the current social insurance solutions is more clearly visible - families with children pay standard ZUS contributions, but at the same time the cost of raising children only increases for them. These children are supposed to earn ZUS benefits in the future for all those paying contributions, both those with children, but with less savings - and those without children, but with more savings. Such a system is clearly not fair."
Anna Gołębicka, an expert at the Adam Smith Centre, pointed out that although the nominal cost of raising children has been rising for several years, in real terms these changes are not significant. "What is alarming, on the other hand, is that the demographic figures have been going consistently downwards for six years now."
"This observation leads one to draw conclusions from a broader perspective than just the input table. Given the prevailing narrative and the succession of opinion poll results - ‘children have poor PR’ and no 500+ or 800+ will change anything in terms of reversing the demographic trend. A child in what the media and contemporary culture create - is courses, books, care, driving, good clothes, good food, electronic equipment, time, attention, but also the judgement of loved ones and surroundings. It's a big responsibility for years to come. As young people say, ‘it's something you can't switch off’. We have raised expectations so high of what the ideal parent is supposed to be that more and more people don't want to say ‘check’, they don't want to have children," Gołębicka added.
The Director of the Institute of Economic Development of the Warsaw School of Economics (SGH) Marek Rocki noted "that in Poland we are dealing with the second demographic transition, which means that an improvement of the financial situation (’welfare‘) reduces fertility, therefore the 500 Plus programme was in its assumption - as it was supposed to improve fertility - erroneous, which was confirmed by Minister Elżbieta Rafalska when she referred to it during a meeting in the Senate of the Republic of Poland."
Michał A. Michalski, Professor at the Adam Mickiewicz University (UAM), Department of Economic Ethics of the Faculty of Anthropology and Cultural Studies of the Adam Mickiewicz University and President of the Foundation Institute for Family and Social Studies, stated that "we are still missing the fundamental fact that raising children is above all a strategic investment in human capital, which will determine the level and quality of life of both current and future generations of Poles."
The survey was conducted for the Adam Smith Centre by the nationwide research panel Ariadna on 24-27 May 2024, on a representative group of respondents aged 18 and over (amounts matched according to representation in the population of Poles aged 18 and over for gender, age and size of place of residence).
Source: A. Smith Centre: and CTK
