EFL barometer for the manufacturing sector increased by 4.7 pts to 54 pts in Q2 2021
Sub-index of the EFL Barometer for production for the second quarter of this year. amounted to 54 points and was higher by 4.7 points compared to the previous quarter, the European Leasing Fund (EFL) reported. This is the highest result in almost 2 years (57 points in the third quarter of 2019). 39% of entrepreneurs expect improvement in the condition of the industry in the next 6 months.
"Analyzing the data of our Barometer since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, production in Poland performs the best of all six analyzed industries. In the first 'covid' measurement, it was the only one to record a sub-index above 40 points, while the remaining segments of the economy hovered around 30 points. The latest survey, that is a year later, also records the highest value of the industry sub-index, apart from transport, and other indicators, such as the expected time of economic recovery in Poland or the impact of the pandemic on the industry, indicate that 'producers' look to the future with great optimism. are consistent with the latest data of the Central Statistical Office, which shows that in March this year, the sold production of industrial enterprises increased by 18.9% year-on-year and 18.6% compared to February this year. from last year, however, we see a revival and there are many indications that it may be even better in the coming months, " quoted President of EFL Radosław Woźniak.
EFL Barometer sub-index for 2018 Q2 for the manufacturing industry it amounted to 54 points, ie 4.7 points more than in the first quarter of this year. This is the highest value of the indicator not only since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in Poland, but since Q3 2019, then the value of the sub-index was 57 points. Compared to the other five industries, the industry recorded the second highest value, after transport (54.5 points).
Production is the most willing to invest in the second quarter of this year among all surveyed industries. Every third representative plans to invest more (33%). Sales forecasts are less optimistic. Only 14% of manufacturing companies count on larger orders, while 15% on lower. 2 out of 3 companies do not expect any changes.
EFL in the COVID-19 Barometer survey for the seventh time asked Polish industry representatives whether, in the context of the crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic, the situation in their industry will improve, deteriorate or remain unchanged in the next 6 months. 39% of entrepreneurs believe that the situation will improve, and 42% that it will remain the same. 8% of those polled believe that it will worsen.
The above results translate into opinions on the economic recovery. 1 in 3 representatives of the Polish industry believe that it will happen this year. No other industry is looking so optimistic about the future. 39% of producers are counting on an economic boom next year, and 17% within 2-3 years.
The impact of the coronavirus pandemic on SMEs is assessed by most industry representatives as business neutral. This opinion was expressed by 56% of entrepreneurs. One in five points to the negative nature of the pandemic (21%) - this is the least of all sectors. Moreover, in the opinion of 23% of those questioned, COVID-19 has a rather or definitely beneficial effect on the company's condition.
"Interestingly, production is the industry in which company failures are least often indicated as a result of a pandemic. Only 9% of entrepreneurs believe that many manufacturing companies will close as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. For comparison, in HoReCa as many as 85% of those asked, 54% of trade, and 44% in services. Moreover, in the opinion of 16% of those questioned, the Polish industry will develop thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The EFL barometer is a synthetic indicator informing about the tendency of companies from the SME sector to growth (i.e. development understood as setting goals by enterprises related to the increase in sales and production, expansion into new markets and maximization of profits, which is related to investments in fixed assets) . The financial condition of SME companies forecast for a given quarter provides a reference point for drawing conclusions about the assumed direction of changes that favor growth or hamper the development of companies. The study is prepared by Ecorys at the request of the European Leasing Fund SA, and its results are published quarterly. Its participants are micro, small and medium-sized companies from all over Poland. A representative group of 600 micro, small and medium-sized enterprises participated in the survey. The current edition took place from March 22 to April 7, 2021.
Source: EFL and ISBnews