EKF Research/Deloitte: Deferred payments will drive consumer finance market growth

The consumer finance market sees the biggest growth opportunity with 70% probability in the development of deferred payment services, according to the study "Map of opportunities and threats for the consumer finance market until 2026" prepared by EKF Research in cooperation with Deloitte. The popularity of deferred payments in the structure of e-commerce payments indicates that it may be the second payment method today, after BLIK, the authors of the study stressed.

"As in the previous edition of the study, the CF market sees the greatest development opportunity in the development of deferred payment services (BNPL - buy now pay later; average probability of 70%; average impact strength - 14.3 points) in the context of the expected further dynamic development of e-commerce generating an increase in demand for this type of services. Market research indicates that a large group of consumers shopping in the e-commerce sector are abandoning suppliers who do not offer BNPL services," - reads the report presented at the Consumer Finance Congress.

The authors of the report point to the high popularity of deferred payments in the structure of e-commerce payments, indicating that it may be the second payment method today, after BLIK.

An important development opportunity for the consumer finance market will be the increase in the use of artificial intelligence and machine learning (average probability of 67%; average impact - 10.8 points), it was stated.

Development opportunities for the CF market associated with technological investments are also perceived by experts through the prism of potential changes in business models (average probability of 59%; average impact strength - 8.9 points), or even their evolution towards a new type of organisation, in which lower unit costs can be generated thanks to the use of effective technological solutions, and a digital offer enables access to a wide audience (average probability of 57%; average impact strength - 9.4 points), it was reported.

Among the most important factors negatively affecting the development of the consumer finance market in the next three years, the authors of the report included a decrease in non-interest income (fees and commissions) in the CF segment as a result of further statutory cost capping (average probability 47%; average impact - 14 pts), political and economic uncertainty abroad (average probability 66%; average impact - 7.6 pts) and high costs of obtaining financing on the market as a result of high interest rates (average probability 49%; average impact - 9.9 pts).

Also indicated were the risk of legal challenges to CF segment credit/loan agreements (average probability of 46%; average impact strength - 8.9 pts) and slower GDP growth in Poland (average probability of 52%; average impact strength - 7.1 pts).

In this year's edition, the industry sentiment coefficient was +10.2, which indicates a positive assessment of the development prospects of the consumer finance market. It means that the effective use of development opportunities by the industry in the 2026 perspective will allow to offset the effects of the materialisation of negative phenomena appearing on the market. The increase in the industry's optimism is also visible in comparison with last year's assessments, when the level of the Coefficient was negative at -1.9, the report concluded.

The analysis of threats and opportunities for the development of the consumer finance market in the next three years was carried out by means of a group expert opinion method in October/November 2023. Representatives of the business community - banks, lending institutions, entities cooperating with the consumer finance market - were invited to participate in the survey. Nineteen experts responded to the survey questionnaire.

Source: EKF Research, Deloitte and ISBnews