European Commission forecasts Poland to lead EU growth in 2025 and 2026

On 19 May 2025, the European Commission released its Spring Economic Forecasts, projecting that Poland will experience real GDP growth of 3.3% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026, following a 2.9% increase in 2024. These figures position Poland as the fastest-growing large economy in the European Union. The Commission attributes the projected growth to a continued expansion in private consumption and a strong rebound in investment activity, though the contribution of net exports is expected to remain negative.

The updated forecasts represent a downward revision from the Commission’s November 2024 outlook, lowering the GDP growth forecast by 0.3 percentage points for 2025 and 0.1 points for 2026. The European Commission’s projections are also slightly more conservative than those issued by Poland’s Ministry of Finance, which forecast growth of 3.7% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026. One contributing factor to this adjustment is the anticipated impact of U.S. trade policy on global demand.

Private consumption is projected to rise by 3.4% in 2025 and 2.8% in 2026, supported by continued real wage increases and easing inflation. Investment is forecast to grow strongly, up by 6.9% in 2025 and 5.3% in 2026, following a decline in 2024. The increase is expected to be supported by EU funding. Net exports, however, are projected to subtract 0.6 percentage points from growth in 2025 and 0.2 points in 2026, as improved domestic demand drives higher imports while exports remain subdued due to sluggish external markets.

Inflation in Poland, measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is expected to average 3.6% in 2025 and decline to 2.8% in 2026. Core inflation is projected at 3.2% in 2025 and 2.9% the following year. In the labour market, unemployment is forecast to remain low at 2.8% through 2025 and 2026—well below the EU average. Employment is expected to rise modestly, with labour costs increasing at a slower pace than in 2024.

The Commission highlights several risks to the forecast, including trade tensions, possible delays in public investment implementation, and stronger-than-anticipated private consumption.

On fiscal matters, the European Commission estimates Poland’s general government deficit will reach 6.4% of GDP in 2025 and 6.1% in 2026. High defence spending continues to weigh heavily on public finances. The slight reduction in the deficit in 2026 is attributed to consolidation measures outlined in Poland’s Medium-Term Budget and Construction Plan for 2025–2028. Additional fiscal consolidation measures are expected to be addressed in the 2026 Budget Act.

Public debt is projected to rise from 55.3% of GDP in 2024 to 58.0% in 2025 and 65.3% in 2026, driven primarily by continued defence expenditures.