Increase in prices leads to a reduction in consumer demand, according to analysts

Retail sales (in real terms) in September this year. was in line with market expectations. Economists estimate that the total retail sales deflator amounted to 5.7% y / y in September and is the highest since at least 2004. The rise in prices and declines recorded in the October consumer boom suggest the emergence of downward trends in consumer activity in the near future.

According to the Central Statistical Office (GUS), retail sales (in constant prices) and retail sales (in constant prices) increased by 5.1% y / y in September 2021. In monthly terms, a decrease of 2.4% was recorded. After eliminating the influence of seasonal factors, retail sales in constant prices in September 2021 were 0.2% higher than in August 2021. Retail sales in current prices in September were higher than a year before by 11.1% and decreased by 1.4% MoM, also stated in the statement. In September 2021, the largest increase in retail sales (in constant prices) compared to the corresponding period of 2020 among the presented groups was still recorded by entities trading in textiles, clothing, footwear (by 14.5% compared to a decrease by 1.7% a year before) . Sales higher than total sales were also observed in the following groups: 'other' (by 8.7%), 'pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, orthopedic equipment' (by 8.2%) and 'furniture, radio, household appliances' (by 8% ).

The Central Statistical Office reported that construction and assembly production (realized by construction companies employing more than 9 people) increased in September this year. by 4.3% y / y In monthly terms, it increased by 9.3%.

As economists point out, although Poles' incomes are growing, the still accelerating inflation limits the purchasing power of households.

In September, the results of retail sales were negatively affected, as was the case with industrial production, by the decline in car sales (-4.1% y / y) and the weak growth rate of fuel and food sales, where high price increases were recorded.

The positive effect of opening up the economy in services also persists, which in turn shifted household spending from goods to services.

The construction sector showed a lower dynamics of growth than assumed by the market consensus (increase by 8%). Despite weaker data in September, economists expect "continued growth in output related to construction of buildings, as indicated by solid dynamics of indicators in the area of ​​housing construction (building permits, investments in progress)".

Some analysts estimate that the data released this week from the domestic real economy indicate that Q3 will be close to 5% y / y.

Below are the most interesting comments from analysts:

"Consumer demand in the Polish economy remains high, but we can see a deterioration in consumer moods caused by inflation, which will then translate into spending cuts," chief economist of Bank Pocztowy, Monika Kurtek.

"Based on the September macro data set, we estimate that GDP grew by 4.7% y / y in Q3 and we maintain our forecast of 5.0% growth for the entire year," expert, Macroeconomic Analysis Department of Bank Pekao Piotr Bartkiewicz

"Adjusted for seasonal factors, retail sales increased by just 0.2% compared to August, compared to 0.4% growth in the previous month. This is another month of poor performance in this regard. Although real sales are still higher than before the pandemic, but after a sharp jump in May on the wave of economic opening, further growth is moderate," Senior Economist Biuro Analiz Makroeconomicznych ING Bank Śląski Dawid Pachucki

Source: ISBnews