Neuca expects approx. 3% growth of the Polish pharmacy wholesale market in 2021.
Neuca is currently observing the return of market dynamics to pre-lockdown levels and forecasts that throughout 2021 the pharmacy wholesale market will grow by approx. 3%, President Piotr Sucharski announced. In the first half of this year the market growth dynamics reached 0.8%.
"We can see that in recent weeks the situation has clearly normalized and the dynamics are returning to the pre-lockdown level, i.e. from the years before 2020, and based on this, we can forecast that we will end the year with a dynamics of approx. 3%, i.e. the one we assumed at the beginning of the year when we planned the entire year 2021. It is in line with our expectations and we believe that the return to normalcy will continue," Sucharski said during the online press conference.
As he emphasized, the first half of the year in the industry was a very turbulent period in terms of market dynamics and volatility.
"The first quarter is a high negative dynamics of 18% due to the lockdown freeze and a high base in March last year. In the second quarter, the situation is even different, because the low base of the 2020 lockdown is compared back to normal this year and the second quarter records high dynamics of 30%, which together gives positive dynamics for the first half of the year,"he pointed out.
The pharmaceutical wholesale market in the second quarter reached 30%. dynamics of growth and amounted to PLN 8.04 billion. Cumulatively, after the first half of the year, the market growth dynamics amounted to 0.8% y / y, and its value reached almost PLN 16 billion.
In the CEO's opinion, in the long term, the pharmacy wholesale market may grow at a rate of 2-5%, and dynamics close to 3% are most likely.
"We assume different scenarios - from the pessimistic to the optimistic ones, but in the long term, these scenarios do not differ much in terms of market dynamics, because we assume that this will be a range between 2% and 5%, which is not a very large discrepancy. is thinking about the future with the dynamics within 3%, that is, as planned this year," said Sucharski.
As he emphasized, the dynamics of the market is strongly correlated with the growth of the entire economy.
"We believe in a return of dynamics to the period before COVID-19," he concluded.
The Neuca Group is a market leader in the wholesale of drugs. The total share of the companies from the Neuca group in the domestic pharmacy wholesale market at the end of 2020 was 32.1%.