Poland’s construction market set to exceed PLN 400 billion by 2026
According to a new report by research firm Spectis, Poland’s construction market is projected to surpass PLN 400 billion by 2026. The market, which grew from PLN 177 billion to over PLN 350 billion between 2016 and 2024, is expected to experience a period of moderate recovery following a weaker 2024.
The increase in market value over the past eight years has been largely driven by rising material and labor costs. However, when adjusted for inflation and measured by the consumption of essential construction materials, the market remains in a phase of long-term stabilization. The ratio of the construction market’s value to Poland’s GDP, which peaked at over 12% in 2011 due to preparations for Euro 2012, has since fluctuated around 10%, the report “Construction Market in Poland 2024-2031” reveals.
Spectis forecasts a more favorable outlook for 2025-2026, with market growth expected to outpace construction inflation. This rebound will push the market value past PLN 400 billion for the first time and restore its GDP ratio to over 10%.
Key drivers of this growth include strong macroeconomic fundamentals, substantial EU grants totaling EUR 72 billion for cohesion policy 2021-2027, and EUR 58 billion in grants and loans for the KPO investment plan. Continued investments in national road and rail projects, energy transformation, and large-scale infrastructure projects such as nuclear power plants and offshore wind farms are also expected to contribute to the market’s expansion.
However, several factors could pose risks to this optimistic outlook. These include unfavorable demographic trends, high interest rates, soaring raw material prices, geopolitical uncertainties affecting investor interest, and a shortage of skilled labor in the construction sector.
Spectis analysts caution that the heavy reliance on mega-investments could introduce significant risks. Smaller construction firms might see limited benefits from these large projects, while major companies could face delays, design changes, and cost overruns. The timely completion of these ambitious projects remains uncertain and could strain the industry’s capacity, potentially driving up construction service prices.
In summary, while Poland’s construction sector has robust potential and urgent investment needs, the pace of implementation will depend on the capabilities of public sector financiers and the capacity of large contractors.
Source: Spectis and ISBnews