Poland’s GDP to grow by 3.4% in 2025, slowing to 3% in 2026
Poland’s gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to grow by 3.4% in 2025, before slowing to 3% in 2026, according to the latest forecast from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The report also predicts that consumer inflation (CPI) will reach 5% in 2025 before easing to 3.9% in 2026. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, is expected to decline from 4.3% in 2025 to 3.5% in 2026.
The OECD’s latest projections reaffirm its December 2024 forecast, which estimated Poland’s GDP growth at 2.8% for 2024, followed by 3.4% in 2025 and 3% in 2026.
According to the OECD, Poland’s economic growth in 2025 will be driven by investment fueled by EU funds, but will slow in 2026 due to fiscal consolidation measures. At the same time, the withdrawal of government energy subsidies will slow down inflation’s return to the central bank’s target.
The report also warns of potential risks to economic stability, including rising wage growth, which could boost consumption but also increase inflationary pressures. On the geopolitical front, the ongoing war in Ukraine and any further escalation could negatively impact Poland’s economic outlook, leading to higher inflation and slower GDP growth.
“The faster-than-expected absorption of EU funds could further stimulate investment in 2025, but tight implementation deadlines and labor shortages may pose challenges,” the OECD report stated.
The OECD also predicts a decline in the household savings rate, which is expected to fall to 3.2% in 2025, down from 3.9% in 2024, and further decrease to 2.6% in 2026. This trend suggests that Polish households may increase spending amid high wage growth, but also face greater financial vulnerability if economic conditions deteriorate.
Despite solid growth projections, external factors such as inflation risks and geopolitical tensions remain key concerns for Poland’s economic stability in the coming years.
Source: OECD and ISBnews
