Polish electric vehicle market poised for significant growth by 2030

Poland’s electric vehicle (EV) market is on the brink of substantial expansion, with projections indicating a nearly fifteenfold increase in the number of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) by 2030. According to the “Polish EV Outlook 2024,” prepared by the Polish Alternative Fuels Association (PSPA), the current fleet of approximately 23,400 BEVs is expected to surge to around 168,900 units within the next seven years.

This anticipated growth is driven by several factors, including the European Union’s decarbonization goals for the transportation sector, the expansion of publicly accessible charging infrastructure, a broader selection of vehicle models, technological advancements, and the implementation of effective public funding mechanisms.

In terms of annual registrations, BEVs are projected to see a significant rise. In 2023, there were approximately 15,400 new BEV registrations. By 2030, this number is expected to escalate to about 100,300, increasing the market share of BEVs in new passenger vehicle sales to 22%.

The electric heavy-duty vehicle (eHDV) segment, although currently in its nascent stage, is also forecasted to experience rapid development. With supportive regulatory frameworks, comprehensive incentive systems, an expanding range of available models, and the development of dedicated high-power charging infrastructure, the eHDV fleet in Poland could reach over 57,000 units by 2030, a substantial increase from the current count of approximately 100 vehicles.

Geographically, the adoption of BEVs varies across Poland. As of 2023, nearly half (49%) of the BEV fleet is concentrated in cities with populations exceeding 300,000. These urban centers also account for 50% of new electric vehicle registrations, highlighting a trend where larger cities are leading the transition to electromobility.

The variety of BEV models available in the Polish market has become increasingly attractive, offering consumers approximately 140 different models across virtually all vehicle segments. These vehicles have also become more practical, with the average battery capacity of passenger BEVs increasing to over 76 kWh and an average range of nearly 450 kilometers on a single charge.

In 2023, the most popular BEV brands in Poland, based on total registrations, were Tesla, Nissan, and BMW. Among specific models, the leading choices for consumers were the Nissan Leaf, Tesla Model 3, and BMW i3.

The “Polish EV Outlook 2024” report underscores the dynamic evolution of Poland’s electromobility sector and provides detailed insights into the current state and future scenarios of the market up to 2040. This comprehensive analysis serves as a crucial resource for stakeholders in the zero- and low-emission transportation industry, offering data and projections that inform strategic decisions and policy development.