Polish peak of inflation will be around 14% y / y in Q3

by   CIJ News iDesk III
2022-05-18   11:36
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"Inflation peak is expected in Q3 2022. at around 14%, there is also a chance to lower inflation in the next year," says Paweł Borys, president of the Polish Development Fund (PFR).

"Everything indicates that the peak of inflation will be in Q3, somewhere around 14% or in these areas. With these fluctuating fuel prices, it is very difficult to forecast food," Borys said on the Tok FM radio.

"And [there is] a chance for lowering inflation in the perspective of next year, although a lot depends on what will happen primarily with gas, oil and commodity prices in the next 12 months," he added.

He pointed out that market expectations regarding the level of interest rates have stabilized - the market assumes that interest rates will stop at around 7% (compared to 5.25% currently in the case of the main reference rate).

"If inflation stopped in July-August, these expectations really seem to be realistic, so most likely it will not be necessary to increase these interest rates more," assessed the president of PFR.

According to Boris, there is no bad scenario ahead of us for the economy.

"Rather, it will be such a soft landing, so of course we are struggling with inflation, we are not threatened with unemployment, this increase will be visible all the time," he emphasized.

He indicated that it was important to stabilize the economic parameters in the next two years, which will be achieved by "some economic slowdown". However - according to the president of PFR - "there is no risk for the labor market".

Yesterday, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said that the peak in inflation should be expected in the second half of this year.

According to the expectations of the National Bank of Poland (NBP), consumer inflation will reach its highest level this year in June or July.

According to a flash estimate by the Central Statistical Office (GUS), consumer inflation amounted to 12.4% y / y in April.

Source: PFR, Tok FM radio and ISBnews