2025-04-08
indicators

The announcement of new U.S. tariffs has raised concerns across global markets, with executives from leading European real estate firms warning of increased uncertainty and potential negative effects on investment and economic growth. Tim Schomberg, CEO of KINGSTONE Real Estate, notes that the initial effect of the U.S. tariffs is widespread uncertainty, which has already triggered volatility in the stock markets. This uncertainty, he says, could delay investment decisions by both institutional and private investors, leading to caution in the real estate market. Schomberg highlights that commercial sectors such as office and logistics are more exposed to the effects of a slowdown in international trade, while residential real estate may benefit from its relative resilience and inflation-hedging characteristics. He also anticipates that interest rate cuts by central banks will likely continue, though the full impact on the property market may only become visible with a delay. Gerhard Lehner, Head of Germany at Savills Investment Management, points out that the future direction of tariffs and their broader consequences are still uncertain, leaving open the possibility of either a global trade conflict or negotiated adjustments. He expects central banks to face increasing pressure as they attempt to balance inflation control with economic support. In the long run, the prospect of declining interest rates may diminish. Lehner warns that higher financing costs could particularly affect segments such as project development and value-add investments, while properties with stable, long-term leases in defensive sectors like logistics or food retail may continue to attract institutional capital. He stresses the need for diversified strategies across property types, geographies, and risk profiles in the current environment. Francesco Fedele, CEO of BF.direkt AG, underlines the broader impact on export-driven economies like Germany. While the direct effects on the real estate market may take time to materialise, the potential for inflation—especially if Europe responds with similar trade measures—could affect construction costs. He highlights the risk of rising building material prices, such as steel, if import quotas are reduced. Fedele believes that a broader economic slowdown or recession could hit commercial real estate markets first, especially offices and logistics. Felix Schindler, Head of Research & Strategy at HIH Invest, describes the tariffs as a shift in international trade policy, resulting in increased market volatility and raising the risk of recession in the U.S. He argues that the eventual effects in Europe will depend on how the European Union responds and on the outcome of ongoing trade negotiations. With reliable predictions becoming more difficult, he expects scenario-based planning to become more prominent. In this context, he sees real estate as a stabilising element within investment portfolios, particularly when guided by long-term strategies and a focus on fundamental value drivers. As discussions around tariffs continue, real estate professionals agree that uncertainty and economic risk will remain key factors influencing investor behaviour and market performance in the months ahead.