In February 2025, Poland recorded the lowest unemployment rate in the European Union, reaching 2.6%, according to Eurostat data. This marked the first time Poland outperformed the Czech Republic, which had long held the top spot for the lowest joblessness in the bloc. The Czech unemployment rate stood at 2.7%, placing it second, while Malta followed in third with 3.5%. Poland’s February figure remained unchanged from the previous month, with 466,000 people registered as unemployed. The milestone not only places Poland at the top of the EU ranking but also reflects one of the lowest unemployment rates recorded in the country’s recent history. For comparison, the average unemployment rate in the EU was 5.7%, and in the eurozone, 6.1%. Despite the record-low unemployment, analysts caution against interpreting the figures as a sign of a booming job market. Labour market experts, including those at Personnel Service, attribute much of the improvement to demographic changes rather than a surge in hiring. With the working-age population gradually shrinking, the labour supply is tightening, contributing to lower unemployment figures even as recruitment activity slows. Signs of this slowdown were already visible at the end of 2024. According to data from Statistics Poland (GUS), the number of job vacancies continued to decline. At the close of the fourth quarter of 2024, there were around 91,000 vacancies reported by employment offices, 6.3% fewer than in the same period the previous year. The “Polish Labour Market Barometer,” a survey conducted by Personnel Service, indicates that companies are approaching employment decisions with caution. Only 16% of employers expressed plans to expand their workforce—down 12 percentage points from the previous year. Meanwhile, 17% of businesses anticipate reducing staff, and a majority, 53%, plan to maintain current employment levels. Medium-sized companies are the most likely to consider downsizing, with 25% indicating possible job cuts. The survey also found that confidence in future business conditions is waning. While 53% of companies expect stability, one-third believe their situation will deteriorate in the near term, compared to 23% a year ago. Only 14% foresee any improvement. According to Krzysztof Inglot, founder of Personnel Service and a labour market expert, the low unemployment rate is not necessarily the result of a thriving job market but rather the consequence of long-term demographic trends and cautious business sentiment. He notes that although the unemployment figure is encouraging, it does not fully reflect broader labour market conditions. Companies are not actively increasing headcount, but instead focusing on maintaining current employment levels amid ongoing economic uncertainty. Looking ahead, Inglot emphasises the importance of monitoring not just unemployment statistics, but also data on workforce participation, job availability, and employer hiring plans. These factors, he argues, will provide a clearer picture of the labour market’s health in the months to come. The data cited comes from a CAWI (Computer Assisted Web Interview) survey conducted by Personnel Service between 20 and 28 January 2025. It included responses from 329 companies of various sizes, offering insights into employer attitudes during a period of both low unemployment and growing caution. Source: Personal Service