2025-06-03
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Panellists invited to take part in the “Market Growth Projections” panel discussion held at CEDER 2025 examined Romania’s real estate market in relation to its CEE neighbours, identifying similarities and differences between the situation in Romania and countries like Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic. A notable point of contrast is the perceived level of predictability. Aurelia Luca, Executive Vice President Operations Hungary and Romania at Skanska suggested that Romania currently misses the “clear predictability” found in other markets, even with differing political landscapes, where “we know how to plan”. This can lead to a “wait and see” sentiment among some investors. In terms of market maturity, Miroslav Tavel, Managing Partner of OPC Holding, indicated that Romania is arguably “something like six or seven years behind the other countries, mostly Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Poland”. However, this perceived lag isn't necessarily negative, as it translates into “plenty of opportunity”, particularly in “underserved secondary cities” where tenant hunger is evident, and in asset classes which are still untapped in Romania. Financing conditions also drew comparisons. Joao Saracho de Almeida, Managing Director of Solida Capital Europe found Romanian banking practices surprising regarding amortisation rates, noting that a standard “five, four percent […] per year” is “completely unheard of in other countries” like Germany, Poland, or Hungary. This difference “does not contribute for, first, better prices in the market. Second, more liquidity”. He also added: “I don't see the Romanian banks really hungry for real estate business. I think it's something that you need to cultivate.” Talking about Romania’s still unrealised potential for growth, Joao Saracho de Almeida compared the country to Poland saying “[In] Poland […] the country understood jointly that they would need to follow one path if they want to embrace this growth. And I think that this is the challenge, I would say, for Romania today — is that the society, in my opinion, needs to come and converge at some point. […] I really think this is missing in the country, a long-term vision, a long-term leadership for the country.” Debates arose regarding yields. While Vlad Dragoescu, Director and CEE Head of Portfolio Management at Revetas Capital questioned why an investor would “pay 8% here, when you can pay 8% in Poland or in Germany”, Joao Saracho de Almeida countered, stating “there is definitely a motivation for people to come to Romania, because the yields are different”. He maintained that the yield for a prime asset in Warsaw is “not the same yield as a prime asset in Bucharest”, and there is still a “big spread still between Poland and Romania and other markets in CEE and Romania”, providing an “incentive for investors to be looking at Romania”. Panellists found similarities between the political uncertainties in Romania and Hungary, with Vlad Dragoescu giving Hungary as an example of what Romania might turn into in the coming period: “Imagine a market like this, where you don't have liquidity, you don't have new companies entering […]. This is where we're heading. I think on the short run, on the long run, […] for sure we need to be prepared.” Later in the discussion, Aurelia Luca added some nuance to the issue: “Since I'm also covering Hungary, I can also give a bit of an insight from there. It's not only the market itself […] but it's about also the product and who is building that product. […] Other than that, again, I think it's also the quality of the product, because maybe it sounds like a broken record, this location, location, location and […] the quality of tenancy, which is extremely important.”