The Labour Market Indicator (LMI), which forecasts short-term changes in unemployment, rose by more than two points in July 2025, continuing its upward trend that began in December 2024. Over the past seven months, the index has increased by four points, with a single decline recorded in February. The recent trend suggests a potential increase in registered unemployment, although the overall labour market remains stable. Several components are contributing to the rise in the indicator, particularly the sharp drop in job offers. Data from district employment offices show a nearly 50% decline in newly registered vacancies in June compared to May, representing just one-third of the volume seen in June 2024. This contraction was more pronounced than the decline observed in May. The Job Offer Barometer supports this trend, recording a third consecutive monthly drop in online job postings, indicating a broader downturn beyond administrative factors. The inflow into employment rose by 3% in June month-on-month, while the outflow from unemployment due to hiring dropped by 12%. This discrepancy reflects weaker labour market flows overall. Seasonally adjusted data show the total outflow from unemployment fell by 35% compared to May, suggesting that the slight rise in the unemployment rate may be driven more by statistical effects than fundamental shifts. Despite these fluctuations, structural stability persists. Layoffs for employer-related reasons increased slightly by 4% but remain historically low. At the same time, the value of unemployment benefits paid rose by nearly 4%, a modest increase given the broader context. Recent changes to labour market regulations may also affect near-term trends. Since June 2025, unemployed individuals, including farmers, can register with employment offices based on their place of residence rather than their official registration address, altering how jobseekers engage with public employment services. Business sentiment surveys conducted by Statistics Poland (GUS) since mid-2021 continue to show a predominance of negative assessments regarding employment expansion. Most companies intend to maintain current staffing levels, with few planning to hire or reduce staff. Although the employment outlook has improved slightly in recent months, the prevailing cautious approach suggests that a more optimistic shift in labour market dynamics is not imminent. Source: BIEC