Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) stands to benefit from the recently concluded trade agreement between the European Union and the United States, despite the headline 15% tariffs on EU exports. Announced jointly by President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, the agreement is being met with cautious optimism across the region, as it averts a deeper trade conflict and offers potential openings for long-term economic gains. Grzegorz Sielewicz, Head of Economic & Market Insights for CEE at Colliers, emphasized that while the agreement introduces certain risks, it also creates room for strategic opportunity. Key provisions of the deal include a 15% tariff on major EU exports such as pharmaceuticals, automotive components, and semiconductors. In parallel, the EU has committed to investing USD 600 billion in the US economy and purchasing USD 750 billion in US energy exports. Although these figures are headline-grabbing, their structural implications for trade flows and investment patterns could be even more significant for the CEE region. The agreement also brings macroeconomic relief by removing the threat of even higher tariffs, which had previously loomed as a potential 30% penalty on EU goods. This resolution could help ease inflationary pressure and support a dovish trajectory for the European Central Bank. A looser monetary stance would create more favourable financing conditions, especially relevant to CEE markets where real estate and manufacturing sectors are sensitive to capital costs. The CEE-6 countries—Poland, Czechia, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, and Bulgaria—currently represent a small share of the EU’s exports to the US. However, with cost-efficient production, modern logistics infrastructure, and growing reputations for reliability, they are well positioned to fill supply gaps created by the tariffs on Western European goods. The result may be an acceleration of trade diversification and increased export volumes from the region to the US. CEE countries could also attract increased American investment. The agreement encourages a strategic rebalancing of supply chains, and the CEE region’s industrial capabilities make it an appealing alternative to more mature Western markets. Energy sector cooperation is also likely to intensify, with Poland and Romania expected to strengthen their roles as regional LNG hubs. This would improve energy security and potentially reduce costs for industrial consumers in the region. Despite these positives, certain sectors remain exposed. Hungary and Slovakia, for instance, are deeply integrated into Germany’s automotive export ecosystem, which may face demand shocks under the new tariff regime. Nonetheless, since the US represents a relatively minor share of exports from most CEE economies, the direct negative impact is expected to be limited. Commercial real estate is among the sectors most likely to benefit. In the first half of 2025, investment volumes in CEE real estate rose by 52% year-on-year. Analysts expect this trend to continue as demand increases for logistics and industrial space, driven by nearshoring and production shifts. Infrastructure investments and reconstruction needs linked to Ukraine are also expected to play a role in the growth of logistics corridors across the region. With interest rate cuts on the horizon and yields in the CEE remaining higher than those in Western Europe, the region remains attractive to international capital. Office markets in key urban centres and second-tier cities could see renewed interest, particularly as investment grows in IT, shared services, and high-tech industries. Overall, while the EU–US trade agreement introduces new costs for some exporters, it also provides the CEE region with fresh avenues for growth. From expanded trade and energy partnerships to increased investor interest in industrial and real estate assets, the long-term outlook for the region appears increasingly resilient in the face of global shifts. Source: Colliers