In the space of a few days, a series of incidents has exposed how fragile Europe’s security has become. Polish and NATO pilots scrambled to guard airspace as Russian strikes neared Poland’s border. Estonia accused Moscow of flying fighter jets into its skies, prompting calls for emergency consultations within the alliance. Both episodes followed earlier shocks, including the 2022 explosion in the Polish village of Przewodów that killed two people when a missile landed during Russian attacks on Ukraine. Civilian systems have proved equally vulnerable. European airports were thrown into disarray after a digital breakdown hit software used for check-in and boarding. A day earlier, major airports in Dallas suffered mass delays when a telecommunications outage crippled air traffic communications. U.S. officials confirmed the Dallas disruption was technical, not hostile, but the two incidents illustrated how dependent global aviation has become on fragile infrastructure. Such weaknesses are not new. Russia has been tied to cyberattacks on Ukraine’s power grid in 2015 and 2016, and the NotPetya malware that spread worldwide in 2017. Pro-Moscow groups have since carried out disruptive attacks on European and U.S. airport websites, while navigation authorities report rising cases of satellite jamming across the Baltic and Nordic regions. Beyond Europe, Washington has stepped up operations in the Caribbean. U.S. warships and fighter jets have been deployed, and strikes have sunk vessels described as part of smuggling networks with links to Caracas. In July, Washington officially labelled the Cartel de los Soles a terrorist organisation and later raised the reward for information leading to President Nicolás Maduro’s arrest to $50 million. Venezuela responded with militia mobilisation and live-fire exercises, insisting that it is defending its sovereignty. Russia’s financial and military ties with Caracas, from oil deals to occasional bomber flights, ensure that this theatre also has wider geopolitical weight. Amid these events, retired British General Sir Richard Shirreff has resurfaced with a stark warning. His scenario begins with a sudden blackout in Lithuania and escalates quickly into conflict across Europe. Analysts view his account not as a forecast but as a reminder of how attacks on infrastructure could be used to test NATO’s unity. The timeline may be exaggerated, but the vulnerabilities it highlights echo what has already been witnessed in recent weeks. A decade of recurring patterns is now clear. From airspace violations and drone incursions to cyber operations and sabotage, Russia and its allies have relied on pressure that unsettles opponents without crossing into outright war. For NATO and its partners, the challenge lies in strengthening defences while avoiding overreaction. The theatre of contest has widened. It now spans Eastern Europe, cyberspace, and the Caribbean, with each front linked by the same thread: the use of unconventional tactics to probe, disrupt, and remind adversaries of their exposure. Editor’s note: This analysis is based on verified reports and public scenario exercises. Speculative elements are included as illustrative warnings, not predictions.