Bank Millennium forecasts Poland’s GDP growth to accelerate to 3.7% in 2025

Poland’s economic growth is expected to accelerate to 3.7% year-on-year (YoY) in 2025, driven primarily by an increase in fixed asset investments, following an estimated growth of 2.8% YoY in 2024, according to Bank Millennium’s latest forecast.

Despite a challenging global economic environment, Poland’s economic performance in 2024 was relatively strong. However, GDP growth fell slightly short of initial projections. “We had initially forecast 3% growth for last year, but we now estimate it to be around 2.8%,” said Grzegorz Maliszewski, Bank Millennium’s chief economist, during a webinar. He emphasized that despite this minor shortfall, Poland continues to stand out positively within the European Union. Over the past four years, the Polish economy has grown by nearly 14%, significantly outperforming the EU average of 5%, and far surpassing Germany, which showed minimal growth over the same period.

Looking ahead to 2025, Bank Millennium anticipates a stronger growth trajectory, primarily driven by increased investments. “We expect growth to accelerate to 3.7%, with a notable shift in its structure compared to 2024,” Maliszewski noted. The anticipated acceleration is expected to be largely supported by inflows from the National Recovery Plan (KPO) and increased utilization of EU structural funds under the new financial framework. These resources are projected to boost public investments, while the private sector is also expected to ramp up spending on machinery, equipment, and automation initiatives.

Consumption will continue to play a key role in economic expansion, although it is unlikely to see a significant acceleration compared to previous years. The bank also pointed out that low levels of fixed asset investment remain a weak spot in Poland’s economy, with 2024 witnessing further declines due to the end of the previous EU financial perspective. However, expectations for 2025 remain optimistic, supported by renewed EU funding streams.

On the external trade front, Bank Millennium foresees a slightly less favorable contribution from net exports to GDP growth. While an expected recovery in Germany will boost Polish exports, it is also anticipated to drive higher imports, leading to a marginally negative net effect on economic growth.

Overall, the bank remains cautiously optimistic about Poland’s economic prospects for 2025, with investment-led growth and stable consumption providing key pillars for expansion. “The outlook for 2025 appears more promising than the previous year, reflecting a more balanced and diversified economic structure,” Maliszewski concluded.

Source: Bank Millennium and ISBnews