BIK raised forecast of housing loan stock to PLN 81bn in 2024

Housing loan stock is expected to increase to PLN 81bn in 2024, up from the PLN 72bn projected at the beginning of the year, forecasts the Credit Information Bureau (BIK).

"The lending market in H1 2024 performed better than our expectations. The higher lending was partly due to the launch of loans still from the pool of the 2% Safe Credit programme, in the first months of this year. Loans from this programme accounted for PLN 13.6 billion of total lending in the first half of the year. The absence of the new support programme, which was originally envisaged for the second half of the year, will in turn lower the forecast for lending in the second half of the year. In summary, we forecast that the total value of housing lending in 2024 will be PLN 81 billion," said BIK Group chief analyst Waldemar Rogowski.

In a January report, BIK forecast that home loan sales would increase to PLN 72bn this year.

According to the report, banks and SKOKs granted 102.6% more housing loans in the first half of this year.

"The second half of this year may be more challenging than its first part. In anticipation of the new support programme, some borrowers may put their property purchase decision on hold this year. This will significantly reduce demand for mortgages. The only positive development for the home loan market is the increasing creditworthiness as a result of more than 8% real wage growth and the stabilisation of interest rates. These factors directly translate into the possibility of borrowing a higher amount. In June this year, its average amount was a record 421,200 zlotys and was 14,3,% higher than last year," Rogowski added.

The bureau's analysts also point to the good quality of the housing loan portfolio. According to the study, the positive trend in the quality of repayment of PLN housing loans continued in the first half of 2024. The last reading of the BIK Home Loan Quality Index (1.01%) fell, i.e. improved by 0.67 since December 2023.
Only the situation of franking credits is of concern at present, with more than 10% of them more than 90 days overdue. They still represent PLN 62.5 billion in the banking sector's portfolio, it pointed out.

"A positive effect of rising incomes and stabilising interest rates is the high quality of PLN housing loans. This leads to the conclusion that the potential problems of some borrowers with housing loan repayment can be solved through the Borrower Support Fund, under which 17,000 people and more than 10,500 loans amounting to PLN 3.23 billion (as of 30.06.2024) currently receive assistance. Meanwhile, the systemic solution, ‘holidays 2.0’, is used by 149 thousand customers and 89 thousand loans amounting to PLN 27 billion have been covered," Rogowski said.

Source: BIK and ISBnews