Euler Hermes, Allianz Research: Reviving Europe's Tourism Only in 2024
The number of tourists in Europe will not exceed 2019 levels until 2024, according to a report by Euler Hermes and Allianz Research. According to forecasts, the number of tourists in Europe will reach 771 million in 2024, compared to only 227 million in 2020 and 744 million in 2019.
"In the case of Europe, the recovery in the tourism industry should come faster than in the US and Asia-Pacific regions - forecasts for the year 2024 means 771 million tourists, which is more than three times the record lowest level recorded worldwide in 2020, "the release reads.
The analyzes of Euler Hermes and Allianz Research show that the estimated number of tourists in 2020 amounted to approx. 400 million people worldwide, including 227 million in Europe. The forecast for 2021 provides for 281 million tourists in Europe and 550 million in the world, for 2022 - 406 million and 800 million, respectively, for 2023 - 655 million and 1.2 billion, and for 2024 - 771 million and 1.4 billion For comparison, in 2019 it was 744 million tourists in Europe and 1.46 billion worldwide.
'The results support the analysis that the return to normal tourism business activity will not take place within the next two years. A recent survey by the United Nations World Tourism Organization of tourism professionals confirms these results - most of whom said they did not expect to return to business. pre-pandemic levels earlier than 2023 at best. 41% of respondents said they did not expect to return to normal until 2024 or later, "the reading continues.
The breakdown of tourists by region by Allianz Research and Euler Hermes indicates that Europe will be ahead of the rest, but is expected to lag behind the US and Asia-Pacific regions in terms of overall economic recovery, the material also shows.
"Our calculations show that the number of foreign tourist arrivals to Europe could reach 771 million already in 2024, which is more than three times higher than the 227 million visits recorded in 2020. Europe is likely to record more tourist visits than other regions. as it saw the largest decline in absolute terms in 2020, amounting to over 500 million international tourists.In addition, EU countries are expected to work together to better adapt to the abolition travel restrictions - Europe has the most to gain in terms of tourism recovery if it manages to develop an effective passport / vaccination card solution, 'they concluded.