ING BSK: General government deficit to rise to 5.5% of GDP in 2024

The general government sector deficit will rise to 5.5% of GDP this year, ING Bank Śląski economists estimate.

Last year's figures are close to our estimates. We expected a deficit of 5.2% of GDP and public debt of 50.3% of GDP. In 2024, we forecast a deficit of 5.5% of GDP and debt of 55% of GDP, according to the ING Journal.

According to the Central Statistical Office (Główny Urząd Statystyczny - GUS) in its preliminary data, the deficit of the government sector amounted to 5.1% of GDP at the end of 2023 (against 3.5% a year earlier after revision). The debt of this sector reached 49.6% of GDP at the end of 20232 (against 49.2% of GDP a year earlier - after revision).

In January this year, Finance Minister Andrzej Domański announced that the Polish government would continue talks in the coming weeks to ensure that Poland would not be subject to the excessive deficit procedure (EDP).

This year's budget law assumes that the public finance sector deficit (according to the EU methodology) will amount to 5.1% of GDP in 2024.

Source: ING BSK and ISBnews