Poland: Inflation was 6.5% y/y in November and GDP rose by 0.5% y/y in Q3 2023

Consumer inflation was 6.5% year-on-year in November 2023, according to preliminary data, the Central Statistical Office (GUS) announced. Compared to the previous month, the prices of consumer goods and services rose by 0.7%, GUS also reported.

Prices of consumer goods and services according to the quick estimate in November 2023, compared to the same month of last year increased by 6.5% (price index 106.5), and compared to the previous month increased by 0.7% (price index 100.7), it was announced.

The prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages increased by 7.2% y-o-y, energy carriers rose by 7.9%, fuels for private means of transport fell by 5.7%.

On a monthly basis, prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages increased by 0.8% m/m, energy carriers fell by 0.1% and fuels for private means of transport increased by 8.8%.

The market consensus was: +6.6% y/y and +0.7% m/m.

Gross Domestic Product (not seasonally adjusted, constant average prices of the previous year) grew by 0.5% y/y in Q3 2023, compared to a 0.6% y/y decline in the previous quarter, the Central Statistical Office (GUS) announced, presenting its second estimate of the data.

According to the rapid estimate (published in mid-November), GDP in this regard grew by 0.4% in Q3 2023.

"GDP grew at an annualised rate of 0.5% in Q3 2023. This was driven by a positive foreign trade balance and a 5.2% contraction in domestic demand (in Q2 2023, the contraction in domestic demand was 2.9%). This comprised a 28.1% decrease in gross accumulation (against an 8.3% decrease in Q2 2023) and a 1.3% increase in total consumption (against a 1.6% decrease in Q2 2023). Household consumption increased by 0.8% (against a decrease of 2.8% in Q2 2023). Gross fixed capital formation increased by 7.2% (against an increase of 10.5% in Q2 2023), GUS announced

In Q3 2023. Seasonally adjusted GDP (at constant prices with the 2015 reference year) increased by 1.5% in real terms compared to the previous quarter and was 0.6% higher than a year ago, the Office also stated.

The impact of domestic demand on economic growth in Q3 2023 was -5.4 percentage points (vs. -2.7 points in the previous quarter), while the impact of investment demand on GDP growth was +1.2 percentage points vs. +1.5 points in the previous quarter, the Central Statistical Office (GUS) reported.

As a result, the impact of domestic demand on the economy was negative at -5.4 percentage points (in Q2 2023, the negative impact was -2.7 percentage points). This comprised a positive impact of total consumption and a negative impact of gross accumulation. The impact of total consumption was +1.1 percentage points (compared with a negative impact of -1.2 percentage points in Q2 2023), of which the impact of consumption in the household sector was +0.5 percentage points and the impact of government consumption +0.6 percentage points (in Q2 2023 -1.6 percentage points and +0.4 percentage points, respectively). The impact of investment demand on GDP was +1.2 percentage points (versus +1.5 percentage points in Q2 2023), GUS reported.

The impact of tangible working capital growth was -7.7 percentage points (against an impact of -3 percentage points in Q2 2023). Consequently, the impact of gross accumulation on GDP growth was negative at -6.5 percentage points (against an impact of -1.5 percentage points in Q2 2023). In the third quarter of this year, there was a positive impact of net exports on economic growth, which amounted to +5.9 percentage points (against +2.1 percentage points in Q2 2023), the Office also reported.

Source: GUS and ISBnews