Poland’s rental housing market expected to stabilize in 2025, Otodom Reports

The Polish rental housing market is poised for a year of stability in 2025, following a period of dynamic changes in the previous year. According to an analysis by Otodom, while the supply of rental apartments is expected to continue declining, the pace of this decrease will be more moderate compared to 2024. The market is showing signs of stabilization, with rental prices remaining largely steady—rising by just 0.2% over the past year, significantly below the inflation rate.

December 2024 saw a further reduction in available rental listings. At the start of the month, Otodom recorded 22,900 active rental listings, which dropped to 20,900 by the end of the year, reflecting a 9% decline. Landlords added 11,800 new listings, which was 22% lower than in November, while 17,600 listings were closed—marking a 12.5% monthly drop. The most significant reductions in available rental properties were observed in cities such as Tri-City (-15%), Lublin, and Gniezno (-12%).

The overall downward trend in rental availability persisted throughout 2024, with exceptions during the summer holiday period and September, which experienced a temporary surge in tenant activity and rental offers. Otodom’s analyst, Milena Chełchowska, anticipates a slight rebound in available listings in early 2025, providing tenants with a broader selection.

Smaller cities experienced the most significant decline in rental listings by the end of 2024, with Olsztyn seeing a 60% drop, followed by Zielona Góra at 45%, and Szczecin and Opole at nearly 40%. In Warsaw, the decline was more moderate at 11% year-on-year.

The seasonal decrease in rental interest was also evident in December, with a 10% decline in searches compared to November. However, demand was still 7% higher compared to December 2023. The average rent across Poland reached approximately PLN 3,700 per month, a 2% increase from the previous year. When adjusted for inflation, which stood at 4.3% in November, real rental prices in most cities showed a year-on-year decrease. Notable exceptions included Zielona Góra (+17%), Olsztyn (+11%), and Bydgoszcz (+8%).

Affordability remains a challenge for many tenants, as lower-priced rentals are becoming scarcer. In December 2023, nearly half (49%) of rental searches targeted properties under PLN 3,000 per month, while 13% were for high-end rentals above PLN 6,000. By the end of 2024, interest in lower-priced properties had dropped to 44%, with demand for premium rentals rising to 15%.

The effects of government policies continued to shape the market in 2024. In the first half of the year, the “Safe Loan 2%” program led to a significant release of rental properties, as many tenants opted to purchase their own homes. However, since May 2024, this trend began to slow, with rental supply steadily decreasing, though still remaining above pre-program levels.

Looking ahead to 2025, a more gradual decline in rental availability is expected. Demand also showed a steady decrease in 2024, falling by an average of 3% month-on-month. The relatively stable rental prices, which rose only marginally over the year, suggest a new balance in the market. Barring any unforeseen external disruptions, this equilibrium is likely to persist, benefiting both landlords and tenants by enabling more predictable long-term planning.

Source: Otodom and ISBnews