Potential U.S. tariffs on automotive sector more impactful for Poland than steel and aluminum duties

The Polish Economic Institute (PIE) has highlighted that potential U.S. tariffs on the automotive sector would have a significantly greater impact on Poland than the tariffs already imposed on steel and aluminum. While exports of steel and aluminum account for about 5% of Poland’s exports to the EU, the new U.S. duties on these products are unlikely to have an immediate effect on Polish exports, though they will not support growth either, according to PIE.

For Poland, European supply chains remain crucial, with 83% of Polish steel and aluminum exports directed to EU markets. The latest U.S. tariffs may not immediately disrupt Poland’s trade flows, but they could add long-term pressure on European markets if other affected countries, such as Mexico, Canada, Brazil, or South Korea, increase their steel and aluminum exports to the EU.

According to PIE’s analysis, Polish exports of steel and aluminum products to the U.S. amounted to €207 million in 2023, a figure that remained similar in 2024. These exports represented less than 2% of Poland’s total exports to the U.S. and just 0.07% of the country’s overall exports. Despite previous tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, Poland’s exports to the U.S. continued to grow and doubled in 2023 compared to 2018, when the first tariffs were introduced. This growth accelerated further after President Joe Biden lifted some of these duties.

Looking ahead, PIE warns that new U.S. tariffs targeting the automotive sector could have far greater consequences for Poland’s economy than those on steel and aluminum. The automotive industry is one of Poland’s key export sectors, and any disruptions in trade with the U.S. or the EU could create significant challenges for Polish manufacturers and suppliers integrated into global production chains.

Source: PIE and ISBnews