Trump’s return threatens global climate efforts, EU urged to lead with Green Deal

The re-election of Donald Trump as U.S. president could deliver a significant setback to global climate protection efforts, according to a recent study by the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin). The study highlights the likelihood of Trump rolling back environmental policies, reinforcing the dominance of fossil fuels, and obstructing international climate agreements. As the U.S. retreats from climate commitments, the European Union is urged to step up its leadership role through the Green Deal and ambitious climate initiatives.

The energy transition in the United States remains sluggish, with fossil fuels continuing to account for 84% of the country’s energy supply. The rapid expansion of domestic oil and shale gas production has not only met national demand but also fueled exports. Although the Biden administration introduced significant climate-friendly policies, such as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), experts argue that even under the most optimistic scenarios, these initiatives will fall short of achieving the necessary emission reductions to meet the 1.5-degree Celsius global warming target.

Trump’s previous presidency saw the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and a scaling back of environmental regulations. His rhetoric around fossil fuel expansion, encapsulated by the slogan “drill, baby, drill,” suggests a similar course in a second term. The DIW study warns that a complete withdrawal from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change is also a possibility, which would not only remove the U.S. from global climate negotiations but also eliminate crucial financial contributions, potentially prompting other major polluters to follow suit.

Despite the challenges posed by a potential Trump administration, there are areas of optimism. Some U.S. states have made significant progress in renewable energy development. States like Iowa, South Dakota, Kansas, and Oklahoma now generate over 40% of their electricity from wind power, while solar energy contributes more than 25% of electricity in California and Texas. Additionally, regional initiatives, such as emissions trading systems on the East Coast, demonstrate a decentralized push towards sustainability.

The DIW researchers note that Trump is unlikely to completely dismantle the IRA, as many Republican-led states have benefited from its funding. However, overall federal support for green initiatives is expected to decline, potentially hindering innovation and growth in sustainability-focused businesses.

Europe, particularly Germany and the EU, is positioned to capitalize on the potential policy vacuum left by the U.S. retreat from climate leadership. The study emphasizes that rather than engaging in a “race to the bottom” by relaxing environmental policies, the EU should take decisive action to increase financial incentives for green markets and strengthen its competitive edge in clean technologies. Maintaining political reliability and supporting sustainable industries could allow the EU to solidify its leadership position in the global green economy.

The study’s authors conclude that a second Trump term would delay international climate progress by at least four years. However, they stress that it is imperative for Germany and the EU to stay the course, resisting downward pressures on climate policy and focusing on the long-term benefits of a greener economy. The European Green Deal, with its ambitious climate targets and regulatory framework, stands as a crucial counterweight to potential U.S. inaction in the years ahead.

Source: DIW Berlin