Study: Distribution Narratives Fuel Climate Populism in Germany

Narratives about who bears the costs of climate policy play a significant role in shaping political attitudes, according to a new study by the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin). The research suggests that when climate policy is framed as unfairly burdening households, letting companies shirk responsibility, or weakening the German economy, it can amplify climate populist attitudes and reduce trust in democratic institutions.

The study, conducted by DIW Berlin’s Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) in cooperation with the NGO FiscalFuture, involved a survey experiment with around 1,600 participants. Researchers tested three types of narratives: that climate policy disproportionately affects poorer households, that companies avoid paying their share, and that environmental measures undermine Germany’s economy. All three narratives increased climate populist sentiment, while the income-related framing had the added effect of lowering satisfaction with democracy.

“Political debates are not based solely on facts – simplistic narratives have great power, especially when they are striking and easy to remember,” said Lorenz Meister, a doctoral researcher at SOEP and co-author of the study. He noted that narratives focusing on distribution issues are particularly influential.

The survey found that responses varied across social and political groups. Low-income households, women, East German residents, and right-leaning voters were most sensitive to the income narrative. The corporate narrative resonated more strongly with men, left-leaning voters, and respondents in eastern regions. The economic narrative, which portrays climate action as harmful to growth, had its strongest impact on right-wing voters.

The authors define “climate populism” as rhetoric claiming that climate policy is a project of elites pursued at the expense of ordinary people. Populist parties in Germany and elsewhere have increasingly used this framing to mobilise support.

The study emphasises that the way climate policy is designed and communicated can counteract these effects. Policies seen as socially balanced—such as direct climate payments to households—help reduce the appeal of populist narratives. Transparent communication that openly addresses distributional conflicts is also crucial.

“Climate policy must be embedded in social policy and take concerns seriously. This is the only way to effectively counter climate populism,” said Matilda Gettins of FiscalFuture, who co-authored the study.

Source: DIW Berlin